Southeast Asian prospects and realities: American hopes and fears

We present and consider five alternative scenarios of development - past, present and future - for Southeast Asia. Longitudinal data on foreign direct investment, trade, and currency valuation provide our basis for understanding the relations among the countries in this region as well as their relations with major external powers, especially the United States, Japan, and China. Our analysis suggests regional diversity rather than uniformity, with considerable flux and heterogeneity in the external economic ties of the countries resident in this area. Moreover, we argue that it would be overly simplistic to view changes in these ties only in bilateral terms of US or Japanese gains or losses. Instead, the Southeast Asian themselves, the other newly-industrializing countries, and the constituent parts of Greater China are all increasingly making their presence felt.