The diversity effect of inductive reasoning under segment manipulation of complex cognition

The present study proposed the idea of segment manipulation of complex cognition (SMCC), and technically made it possible the quantitative treatment and systematical manipulation on the premise diversity. The segment manipulation of complex cognition divides the previous inductive strengths judgment task into three distinct steps, attempting to particularly distinguish the psychological processes and their rules. The results in Experiment 1 showed that compared with the traditional method, the quantitative treatment and systematical manipulation of SMCC on the diversity did not change the task's nature, and remain rational and a good measurement of inductive strength judgment. The results in Experiment 2 showed that the participants' response rules in the triple-step task were expected from our proposal, and that in Step 2 the "feeling of surprise" (FOS), which seems implausible but predicted from the diversity premises, was measured, and its component might be the critical part that produced the diversity effect. The "feeling of surprise" may reflect the impact of emotion on cognition, representing a strong revision to premise probability principle of pure rational hypothesis proposed by Lo et al., and its roles in the diversity effect are worthy of further research. In this regards were discussed the mistakes that the premise probability principle makes when it takes posterity probability as prior probability.