Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Short-term Operating Cost

Demand uncertainty is one of the most significant factors of uncertainty in short-term operation of power system which might lead to higher operating cost. This paper proposes a method to determine the cost of demand uncertainty incurred in short-term generation scheduling. The cost is considered as the increase of generation scheduling cost to cope with uncertainty. A decision analysis model is used to determine such cost in this proposed method. Deterministic criterion is used to determine the spinning reserve requirement to fulfill system reliability. Based on the proposed method, uncertainty of the generating unit's operation is also taken into account. The proposed method has been illustrated using a modified IEEE-24 bus test system.