How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?

被引：37

作者：

Caulkins, Jonathan ^{[1
]}

Grass, Dieter ^{[2
]}

Feichtinger, Gustav ^{[3
,4
]}

Hartl, Richard ^{[5
]}

Kort, Peter M. ^{[6
,7
]}

Prskawetz, Alexia ^{[4
,8
]}

Seidl, Andrea ^{[5
]}

Wrzaczek, Stefan ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Heinz Coll, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

[3] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, Res Unit Operat Res & Control Syst ORCOS, Vienna, Austria

[4] Univ Vienna, IIASA, VID OAW, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria

[5] Univ Vienna, Dept Business Decis & Analyt, Vienna, Austria

[6] Tilburg Univ, Tilburg Sch Econ & Management, Tilburg, Netherlands

[7] Univ Antwerp, Dept Econ, Antwerp, Belgium

[8] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, Res Unit Econ ECON, Vienna, Austria

来源：

PLOS ONE | 2020年 / 15卷 / 12期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1371/journal.pone.0243413

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying essentially to eradicate the virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already filled to capacity.

引用

页数：19

共 26 条

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