Use of Air Quality Modeling Results in Health Effects Research

The most recent Global Burden of Disease study (Lim SS et al, Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260, 2012), for example, finds that combined exposure to ambient and indoor air pollution is one of the top five risks worldwide. Of particular concern is particulate matter (PM). Health researchers are now trying to assess how this mixture of air pollutants links to various health outcomes and how to tie the mixture components and health outcomes back to sources. This process involves the use of air quality models. As part of an EPA Clean Air Research Center, the Southeastern Center for Air Pollution and Epidemiology (SCAPE), a variety of air quality models are being developed and applied to provide enhanced temporal and spatial resolution of pollutant concentrations for use in epidemiologic analysis. Air quality models that are being further developed and used as part of the center include Bayesian-based ensemble methods and hybrid chemical transport-chemical mass balance modeling. The hybrid method uses knowledge of the emissions, modeling and measurement uncertainties, and can provide spatially and temporally complete pollutant fields.