Rectal cancer: prognostic indicators of long-term outcome in patients considered for surgery

Purpose Patients and clinicians seek an accurate prognosis after resectional surgery for rectal cancer. The aim of this study was to determine long-term outcomes after potentially curative surgery for rectal cancer with particular focus on factors associated with longer-term survival that are available to surgeons in the early post-operative setting. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of a prospectively gathered database of all primary rectal adenocarcinomas considered for surgery in the University Hospitals of Leicester National Health Service (NHS) Trust between 1998 and 2007. Survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier method. Factors thought to be associated with survival were subjected to univariate analysis followed by Cox proportion regression. Results One thousand and twelve patients with primary rectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 1998 and 2007 were identified. Eight hundred and fifty three patients did not have metastases at the time of presentation and 726 patients underwent major resectional surgery. Five-year survival was 66%. Patients' age, Dukes' stage, UICC stage, nodal involvement and circumferential resection margin status were independently associated with long-term survival on multivariate analysis. Conclusion This is one of the largest series of rectal cancers from a single NHS trust. We have demonstrated that age, Dukes' stage and CRM status are associated with long-term survival. These clinical factors are readily available to the surgeon at the time of first post-operative review and can provide a good clinical guide to prognosis.