The politics of punishment across time and space: A pooled time-series analysis of imprisonment rates

Despite considerable theoretical interest, little is known about the political determinants of punishment. This study uses a pooled time-series design to fill this gap by examining political and other determinants of state imprisonment rates. The presence of Republican elected officials is used to assess the strength of the law-and-order political party. Ethnic threat theories suggest that imprisonments will be more likely in jurisdictions with the most blacks or Hispanics, while economic threat theories suggest that the imprisoned population will be greater where economic stratification is most pronounced. After controlling for social disorganization, religious fundamentalism, political conservatism, and violent crimes, the results show that Republican strength and minority threat lead to higher imprisonment rates. Statistical interactions support predictions that these relationships became stronger after greater Republican stress on law and order. The latter findings confirm theoretical expectations that these relationships are historically contingent.