Handling Commercial, Operational and Technical Uncertainty in Early Stage Offshore Ship Design

In this paper, we assess state-of-the-art methods for handling aspects of technical, commercial and operational uncertainty in the early stages of offshore ship design. Uncertainty affects the lifecycle performance of a ship in a complex manner, which is difficult to assess in the early design process. We approach this problem by decomposing uncertainty into technical, commercial and operational aspects, and investigate how it can be identified, modelled and handled. Methods discussed include design structure matrix, tradespace exploration and evaluation methods, real options theory, stochastic optimization, and system dynamics. Strategies for handling uncertainty discussed include margins, and specific system lifecycle properties "-ilities". We argue that a decomposition of uncertainty facilitates the use of current methods and approaches for decision-making in early stage ship design.