HOUSING FORECLOSURE AS A GEOGRAPHICALLY CONTINGENT EVENT: COLUMBUS OHIO 2003-2007

This article seeks to better understand geographic manifestations of housing foreclosure, moving beyond the usual portrayal that highlights, e.g., race/ethnicity and income. We depart from the usual analytical strategy which centers on factors that subsume high proportions of variance. Instead, this is the starting point for considering constellations and idiosyncratic but formative characteristicscontingenciesthat further understanding of, e.g., why two households with identical attributes experience different outcomes. Empirical focus is on Columbus Ohio, 2003-2007. Regression analysis identifies central tendencies, followed by regression tree procedures that reveal variable combinations which alter correlational expectations. Unique areas are examined by neighborhood reconnaissance, exploratory data analysis, interviews, and archival research. Relevant factors include race/ethnicity and socio-economic characteristics. Beyond that, differing variable combinations lead to different outcomes, as do processes such as neighborhood life cycle, institutional actions/involvement, and year of home purchase/construction relative to housing de/inflation and mortgage market characteristics.