Mediating International Conflicts: The European Union as an Effective Peacemaker?

This article examines how the EU's effectiveness as a mediator in peace negotiations can be appropriately conceptualized and analysed. Mediator effectiveness is analysed along two dimensions: goal-attainment and conflict settlement. Investigation of the conditions of mediator effectiveness is structured around four key sets of variables: mediator leverage, mediation strategy, coherence and the conflict's context. In our empirical analysis of EU mediation between Serbia and Kosovo (Belgrade-Pristina dialogue) we find that the medium degree of EU effectiveness (both in terms of goal-attainment and conflict settlement) can be explained by its great leverage vis-a-vis the conflict parties due to their EU membership aspirations and its strategy of a mix of manipulation and formulation that draws on this leverage to move parties toward agreement through the use of positive incentives. A limited degree of EU coherence and spoiler problems in Northern Kosovo seem to have had a constraining influence on EU effectiveness.