Modeling mitigation strategies for toxic cyanobacteria blooms in shallow and eutrophic Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

This paper explores mitigation scenarios for toxic cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Kasumigaura is located about 60-90 km northeast of Tokyo, in the southeast of Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. Dominant species of cyanobacteria (Microcystis aeruginosa, Microcystis viridis and Microcystis ichthyoblabe) produce highly potent toxins as (Microcystin-(Leucine + Arginine, MC-LR), Microcystin-(Arginine + Arginine, MC-RR) and Microcystin-(Tyrosine + Arginine, MC-YR) in the Lake. Toxin production is generally the result of two major factors-natural processes and human interferences. Both factors have an extreme influence on the generation of cyanobacteria toxins within lake ecosystems. To address these factors, we propose two concepts for mitigation. The first concept is intended for examining the natural process of toxin production behavior within the lake and the second concept is used for evaluating inflow of wastes and nutrients from human activities that form toxins. Our research aims to combine both strategies to mitigate impacts of toxins, by examining trends of cyanobacteria nutrient sources, buoyancy regulations that influence bloom formation, and the environmental conditions that spur blooms. This study proposes a simple IMPACT (Integrating Mitigation Policies for Aquatic Cyanobacteria Toxin) model for diminution strategies of harmful algal blooms and their toxins. A mixed-methods approach is employed, nested within the Environmental Systems Analysis (ESA) tools e.g. scenario analysis and stakeholder analysis. The quality of the lake is assessed through a combination of observation and field study analysis. The findings suggest that successful mitigation of cyanobacteria toxins is highly dependent on multi-functional, multi-stakeholder involvement, and relevant intergovernmental policy. Without integrating approaches among different stakeholders, diverse socioeconomic activists, local-national policymakers and effective policy measures, prevention of cyanobacteria toxin production within lakes becomes extremely complex and difficult. The proposed IMPACT model could be a decision framework for identifying suitable policies that mitigate cyanobacteria impacts.