The Research Of Mid-Long Forecasting Based on MGM(l, N) Model with Multiple Linear Regression Analysis in Nanjing Core Area

Mid-long term load forecasting is the prerequisite of power system planning. This paper first introduces the sub-area partitioning of power grid in Nanjing core area. Then the influences of social-economic factors to mid-long term load are studied by two ways, which are correlation analysis method and multiple linear regression analysis method. Based on the analysis results of the two methods, a grey MGM (1, N) load forecasting model is constructed. Furthermore, by forecasting the maximal load of different districts, the multiple linear regression Grey MGM (1, N) model and ordinary multiple linear regression models are compared. The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and wider adaptability. Finally, this paper analyzes the load developing tendency in different districts of the city and proposes corresponding suggestions.