Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging

被引：77

作者：

Armantier, Olivier ^{[1
]}

Treich, Nicolas ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA

[2] INRA, Toulouse Sch Econ LERNA, Toulouse, France

来源：

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2013年 / 62卷

关键词：

Belief elicitation; Scoring rules; Experimental economics; SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES; PERSONAL PROBABILITIES; RISK-AVERSION; ELICITATION; INFORMATION; PREDICTION; PREFERENCES; BEHAVIOR; MARKETS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.03.008

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Proper Scoring Rules (PSRs) are popular incentivized mechanisms to elicit an agent's beliefs. This paper combines theory and experiment to characterize how PSRs bias reported beliefs when (i) the PSR payments are increased, (ii) the agent has a financial stake in the event she is predicting, and (iii) the agent can hedge her prediction by taking an additional action. In contrast with previous literature, the PSR biases are characterized for all PSRs and all risk averse agents. Our results reveal complex distortions of reported beliefs, thereby raising concerns about the ability of PSRs to recover truthful beliefs in general decision-making environments. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：17 / 40

页数：24