Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study

被引：16

作者：

Concin, Hans ^{[1
]}

Brozek, Wolfgang ^{[2
,3
]}

Benedetto, Karl-Peter ^{[4
]}

Haefele, Hartmut ^{[5
,6
]}

Kopf, Joachim ^{[5
]}

Baerenzung, Thomas ^{[7
]}

Schnetzer, Richard ^{[8
]}

Schenk, Christian ^{[9
]}

Stimpfl, Elmar ^{[1
]}

Waheed-Hutter, Ursula ^{[1
]}

Ulmer, Hanno ^{[10
]}

Rapp, Kilian ^{[11
,12
]}

Zwettler, Elisabeth ^{[2
,3
]}

Nagel, Gabriele ^{[1
,12
]}

机构：

[1] Agcy Prevent & Social Med, Bregenz, Austria

[2] Hanusch Hosp, Vienna Hlth Insurance Fund WGKK, Ludwig Boltzmann Inst Osteol, Vienna, Austria

[3] Hanusch Hosp, Trauma Ctr Meidling, Austrian Workers Compensat Board AUVA, Dept Med 1, Vienna, Austria

[4] Landeskrankenhaus Feldkirch, Dept Trauma Surg, Feldkirch, Austria

[5] Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz, Dept Trauma Surg, Bregenz, Austria

[6] Landeskrankenhaus Hohenems, Dept Trauma Surg, Hohenems, Austria

[7] Landeskrankenhaus Bludenz, Dept Trauma Surg, Bludenz, Austria

[8] Krankenhaus Dornbirn, Dept Trauma Surg, Dornbirn, Austria

[9] Sanat Schruns, Schruns, Austria

[10] Med Univ Innsbruck, Dept Med Stat Informat & Hlth Econ, Innsbruck, Austria

[11] Robert Bosch Krankenhaus, Dept Clin Gerontol, Stuttgart, Germany

[12] Univ Ulm, Inst Epidemiol & Med Biometry, Ulm, Germany

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH | 2016年 / 61卷 / 09期

关键词：

Hip fracture incidence; Osteoporosis; Austria; Vorarlberg; Prognosis; LIFE-STYLE; VITAMIN-D; TRENDS; OSTEOPOROSIS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; GERMANY; BISPHOSPHONATES; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1007/s00038-016-0878-9

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

引用

页码：1021 / 1030

页数：10

共 39 条

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