The Research on Short-term Energy Demand Forecasting Model for Small Regional Aspects

Since the energy demand forecast in small region, lacking of models and history data generally, the history data of energy consuming in one development zone in Guangdong is taken and analyzed. Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of some common single models and the applicable scale, one optimized hybrid forecasting model which is composed of optimized gray model and multiple linear regression is set up. The combined model can overcome the shortcomings of single model, and realize the principle that put information resources into use more efficiently and the error of the model is the smallest. The results indicated that this hybrid model is suitable to forecast the energy demand in small region and can provided scientific and valuable reference basis for establishing the energy strategic in small area.