Identifying Patients at Risk for Venous Thromboembolic Events After Isolated Upper Extremity Trauma: A Predictive Scale

Previous studies have defined risk factors for development of venous thromboembolisms (VTEs) among patients with lower extremity orthopedic trauma. Limited data exist on this risk after upper extremity orthopedic trauma. A total of 269,137 incidents of upper extremity orthopedic trauma (fractures of the clavicle, scapula, humerus, elbow, or lower arm) were identified in the State Inpatient Database for 4 states included in the analysis (California, Florida, New York, and Washington) from 2006 to 2014. These patients were split into 2 cohorts, a derivation cohort (California and New York) and a validation cohort (Florida and Washington). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of risk factors for VTE within 90 days of discharge in the derivation group were used to de- velop the Thromboembolic Risk after Upper Extremity Trauma (TRUE-T) scale. Linear regression was used to determine fit of the TRUE-T scale to the 2 cohorts. We found that 2.61% of patients in the derivation cohort and 2.72% of patients in the validation cohort had a VTE within 90 days of discharge. Risk factors associated with increased rates of VTE were age older than 40 years, Medicare payer, anemia, chronic lung disease, coagulopathy, heart failure, malignancy, obesity, renal failure, head injury, chest injury, abdominal injury, rib fracture, humerus fracture, elbow fracture, and closed reduction. Application of the TRUE-T scale to the validation cohort showed an R2 value of 0.88. The patient factors, concomitant injuries, and fracture treatment modalities included in the TRUE-T scale can be used to identify patients at increased risk for VTE after upper extremity orthopedic trauma.