Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Non-timber Forest Product Provision in Benin, West Africa: Linking Niche-based Modeling with Ecosystem Service Values

Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Non-timber Forest Product Provision in Benin, West Africa: Linking Niche-based Modeling with Ecosystem Service Values. Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) make a major contribution to the livelihoods of the West African population. However, these ecosystem services are threatened by climate and land use change. Our study aims at 1) the quantification and monetary mapping of important NTFPs, and 2) developing a novel approach to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on the economic benefits derived from these NTFPs. We performed household interviews in northern Benin to gather data on annual quantities of collected NTFPs from the three most important savanna tree species: Adansonia digitata, Parkia biglobosa, and Vitellaria paradoxa. Current market prices of the NTFPs were derived from local markets. We assessed the species' current and future (2050) occurrence probabilities by calibrating niche-based models with climate and land use data at a 0.1A degrees resolution (cell: similar to 10 x 10 km). To assess future economic gains and losses, respectively, we linked modeled species' occurrence probabilities with the spatially assigned monetary values. Highest current annual benefits are obtained from V. paradoxa (USD 54,111 A +/- 28,126/cell), followed by P. biglobosa (USD 32,246 A +/- 16,526/cell) and A. digitata (USD 9,514 A +/- 6,243/cell). The future simulations showed spatially varying impacts of environmental change. In particular A. digitata might benefit in some regions. However, large areas are projected to lose up to 50 % of their current economic value by 2050 with regard to the three species. Our findings provide a first benchmark for local policy-makers to economically compare different land use options and adjust existing management strategies.