Quantitative Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water-Surface Area Variations from the 1990s to 2013 in Honghu Lake, China

The water-surface areas of the lakes in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, have undergone significant changes under the combined impacts of global climate change and local anthropogenic stress. As a typical lake in this region, the Honghu Lake features water-surface area variations that are documented in this study based on high-resolution remote sensing images from the 1990s to 2013. The impact of human activities is analyzed by a novel method based on land use data. The relative impacts of each driving force are further distinguished by the statistical analysis method. Results show that the water-surface area has significant inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, and the minimum of which generally occurs in spring. The degree to which climate factors and land use structure affect the water-surface area varies between different stages. In the April-May period, the sum of the water demands of paddies and aquaculture has anegativeeffect thatis greater than the positive effect of the difference between the monthly precipitation and monthly evaporation. In the June-October period, the precipitation features a positive impact that is greater than the negative effect of the water demand of agriculture. Meanwhile, climate factors and human activities have no influence on the lake area in the November-March period. With the land use being altered when annual precipitations are close in value, paddy field areas decrease, ponds areas increase, and the water demand of agriculture rises in both flood and drought years. These findings provide scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water-surface area variations and for effectively maintaining the stability of the Honghu Lake area through adjustments in land use structure.