KALMAN FILTERING CORRECTION IN REAL-TIME FORECASTING WITH HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

被引:0
作者
Wu Xiao-ling [1 ]
Wang Chuan-hai [1 ]
Chen Xi [1 ]
Xiang Xiao-hua [1 ]
Zhou Quan [2 ]
机构
[1] Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China
[2] Shanghai Pudong Area Hydrol Bur, Shanghai 201208, Peoples R China
关键词
real-time flood forecast; Kalman filter; hydraulic model; alternate Kalman filtering method;
D O I
10.1016/S1001-6058(08)60072-4
中图分类号
O3 [力学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0801 ;
摘要
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be ail efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods (2004). The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique call improve the reliability of the flood forecast.
引用
收藏
页码:391 / 397
页数:7
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