Investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China using ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis

被引:55
作者
Huang, Desheng [1 ,2 ]
Guan, Peng [1 ]
Guo, Junqiao [3 ]
Wang, Ping [4 ]
Zhou, Baosen [1 ]
机构
[1] China Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Shenyang 110001, Peoples R China
[2] China Med Univ, Coll Basic Med Sci, Dept Math, Shenyang 110001, Peoples R China
[3] Liaoning Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shenyang 110005, Peoples R China
[4] Shenyang Municipal Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Infect Dis Control, Shenyang 110031, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
D O I
10.1186/1471-2334-8-130
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
Background: The effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence have gained more recent concern. However, the multi-collinearity among meteorological factors affects the accuracy of correlation with bacillary dysentery incidence. Methods: As a remedy, a modified method to combine ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was proposed for investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China. Results: All weather indicators, temperatures, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity have shown positive correlation with the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery, while air pressure had a negative correlation with the incidence. Ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis showed that during 1987-1996, relative humidity, temperatures and air pressure affected the transmission of the bacillary dysentery. During this period, all meteorological factors were divided into three categories. Relative humidity and precipitation belonged to one class, temperature indexes and evaporation belonged to another class, and air pressure was the third class. Conclusion: Meteorological factors have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in northeast China. Bacillary dysentery
引用
收藏
页数:9
相关论文
共 17 条
[1]   Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China [J].
Bi, Peng ;
Zhang, Ying ;
Parton, Kevin A. .
JOURNAL OF INFECTION, 2007, 55 (06) :551-556
[2]  
CHEN KC, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P94
[3]   The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994 [J].
Curriero, FC ;
Patz, JA ;
Rose, JB ;
Lele, S .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 2001, 91 (08) :1194-1199
[4]   Does ambient temperature affect foodborne disease? [J].
D'Souza, RM ;
Beeker, NG ;
Hall, G ;
Moodie, KBA .
EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2004, 15 (01) :86-92
[5]   Estimating the burden and cost of infectious intestinal disease in the Maltese community [J].
Gauci, C. ;
Gilles, H. ;
O'Brien, S. ;
Mamo, J. ;
Stabile, I. ;
Ruggeri, F. M. ;
Calleja, N. ;
Spiteri, G. .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2007, 135 (08) :1290-1298
[6]  
Hocking R.R., 1996, METHODS APPL LINEAR
[7]   HUMAN BIOMETEOROLOGY - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH - SOME INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS [J].
KALKSTEIN, LS ;
SMOYER, KE .
EXPERIENTIA, 1993, 49 (11) :969-979
[8]   The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries [J].
Kovats, RS ;
Edwards, SJ ;
Hajat, S ;
Armstrong, BG ;
Ebi, KL ;
Menne, B .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2004, 132 (03) :443-453
[9]  
Lama JR, 2004, J HEALTH POPUL NUTR, V22, P399
[10]   Shigellosis remains an important problem in children less than 5 years of age in Thailand [J].
Lee, H ;
Kotloff, K ;
Chukaserm, P ;
Samosornsuk, S ;
Chompook, P ;
Deen, JL ;
Von Seidlein, L ;
Clemens, JD .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2005, 133 (03) :469-474