Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic

被引:230
作者
Worby, Colin J. [1 ]
Chang, Hsiao-Han [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Broad Inst MIT & Harvard, 415 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
[2] Natl Tsing Hua Univ, Dept Life Sci, 101,Sect 2,Kuang Fu Rd, Hsinchu 300044, Taiwan
[3] Natl Tsing Hua Univ, Inst Bioinformat & Struct Biol, 101,Sect 2,Kuang Fu Rd, Hsinchu 300044, Taiwan
关键词
FACEMASKS; DISEASE;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-020-17922-x
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has already infected millions worldwide and, with no vaccine available, interventions to mitigate transmission are urgently needed. While there is broad agreement that travel restrictions and social distancing are beneficial in limiting spread, recommendations around face mask use are inconsistent. Here, we use mathematical modeling to examine the epidemiological impact of face masks, considering resource limitations and a range of supply and demand dynamics. Even with a limited protective effect, face masks can reduce total infections and deaths, and can delay the peak time of the epidemic. However, random distribution of masks is generally suboptimal; prioritized coverage of the elderly improves outcomes, while retaining resources for detected cases provides further mitigation under a range of scenarios. Face mask use, particularly for a pathogen with relatively common asymptomatic carriage, is an effective intervention strategy, while optimized distribution is important when resources are limited.
引用
收藏
页数:9
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