Simulation modeling and tobacco control: Creating more robust public health policies

被引:82
作者
Levy, DT
Bauer, JE
Lee, HR
机构
[1] Pacific Inst Res & Evaluat, Calverton, MD USA
[2] Univ Baltimore, Baltimore, MD 21201 USA
[3] Roswell Pk Canc Inst, Buffalo, NY 14263 USA
[4] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Speech, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
关键词
D O I
10.2105/AJPH.2005.063974
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Although previous empirical studies have shown that tobacco control policies are effective at reducing smoking rates, such studies have proven of limited effectiveness in distinguishing how the effect of policies depend on the other policies in place, the length of adjustment period, the way the policy is implemented, and the demographic groups considered. An alternative and complementary approach to purely statistical equations is simulation models. We describe the SimSmoke simulation model and how we used it to assess tobacco control policy in a specific case study. Simulation models are not only useful for policy prediction and planning but also may help to broaden our understanding of the role of different public health policies within a complex, dynamic social system.
引用
收藏
页码:494 / 498
页数:5
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