The Asymptotic Longitudinal Cosmic Ray Intensity Distribution as a Precursor of Forbush Decreases

Identifying the precursors (pre-increases or pre-decreases) of a geomagnetic storm or a Forbush decrease is of great importance since they can forecast and warn of oncoming space weather effects. A wide investigation using 93 events which occurred in the period from 1967 to 2006 with an anisotropy A (xy) > 1.2% has been conducted. Twenty-seven of the events revealed clear signs of precursors and were classified into three categories. Here we present one of the aforementioned groups, including five Forbush decreases (24 June 1980, 28 October 2000, 17 August 2001, 23 April 2002, and 10 May 2002). Apart from hourly cosmic ray intensity data, provided by the worldwide network of neutron monitor stations, data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field were used for the analysis of the examined cosmic ray intensity decreases. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the "ring of stations" method. Results reveal a long pre-decrease up to 24 hours before the shock arrival in a narrow longitudinal zone from 90A degrees to 180A degrees.