Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

被引：41

作者：

Rost, Gergely ^{[1
]}

Bartha, Ferenc A. ^{[1
]}

Bogya, Norbert ^{[1
]}

Boldog, Peter ^{[1
]}

Denes, Attila ^{[1
]}

Ferenci, Tamas ^{[2
]}

Horvath, Krisztina J. ^{[1
]}

Juhasz, Attila ^{[1
,3
]}

Nagy, Csilla ^{[1
,3
]}

Tekeli, Tamas ^{[1
]}

Vizi, Zsolt ^{[1
]}

Oroszi, Beatrix ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Szeged, Bolyai Inst, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary

[2] Obuda Univ, Physiol Controls Res Ctr, H-1034 Budapest, Hungary

[3] Govt Off Capital City Budapest, Dept Publ Hlth, H-1034 Budapest, Hungary

来源：

VIRUSES-BASEL | 2020年 / 12卷 / 07期

关键词：

COVID-19; epidemic; Hungary; under-ascertainment; SARS-CoV-2; compartmental model; reproduction number; intervention; case fatality rate; TIME;

D O I：

10.3390/v12070708

中图分类号：

Q93 [微生物学];

学科分类号：

071005 ; 100705 ;

摘要：

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

引用

页数：30

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