Linking physiological, population and socio-economic assessments of climate-change impacts on fisheries

Climate change is postulated to influence marine resources worldwide with consequent ramifications for the management of commercially important fisheries. There is a need to understand the likely impacts of climate change affecting the biology of fisheries at each of the different levels: (a) individual (reproductive potential, larval settlement, spatial distribution); (b) population (carrying capacity, productivity, spatial distribution); (c) multi-species (replacement of one fishery by another) and (d) ecosystem (dependent predator species, shifts in community composition). When addressing these problems it is important to integrate information across a range of dimensions pertaining to the resource and stakeholders, using a combination of biological, economic and social research elements. This is necessary for a better understanding of the likely changes to catches and in turn the possible socio-economic implications. We assessed the impact and likelihood of a range of plausible climate impacts on a number of lobster life history parameters, using the Torres Strait tropical rock lobster Panulirus ornatus as a case study. The hypothesised high risk effects of climate change were implemented through modifications to the lobster stock assessment model. Projected catches and an input output model of the Australian economy were used to determine the flow-on effects of climate-change impacts affecting this lobster fishery. We highlight the potential of this combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches as a pragmatic first step to exploring climate-change impacts on a fishery and summarise implications for management. Our results suggest that there may be positive as well as negative consequences. Our integrated methodology is a step towards linking the interrelation between different variables and fishery productivity, and quantifying the resultant socio-economic effects to fishers, their communities and national economies. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.