Uncertain Analysis of Inventory Theoretic Model for Freight Mode Choice

The inventory theoretic model of freight transport is a model that analyses mode choice from a total logistics costs (TLC) perspective. TLC of every transport mode is influenced by many uncertain factors. In this paper, the uncertain analysis is focused on, using the inventory-theoretic model from the point of view of the shipper. Two transport modes are compared in this paper: direct road haulage and combined transport. Basing on the results of single factor sensitivity analysis, two factors sensitivity analysis is done. Monte-Carlo method is adopted to determine the probability distribution of TLC under uncertain conditions. Then these two transport modes' TLC can be compared by each own probability distribution. The transport mode which has lower TLC is chosen.