Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

被引:75
|
作者
Saba, Vincent S. [1 ,2 ]
Stock, Charles A.
Spotila, James R. [3 ]
Paladino, Frank V. [4 ]
Tomillo, Pilar Santidrian [3 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[2] NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, NE Fisheries Sci Ctr, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
[3] Drexel Univ, Dept Biol, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
[4] Indiana Univ Purdue Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Wayne, IN 46805 USA
[5] Leatherback Trust, Goldring Gund Marine Biol Stn, Playa Grande, Costa Rica
关键词
PACIFIC LEATHERBACK TURTLES; EL-NINO; SEA-TURTLES; MITIGATE; IMPACTS; RATIOS; OCEAN; FACE;
D O I
10.1038/NCLIMATE1582
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Assessing the potential impacts of climate Change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied(1-4). If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model(5), climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(6) and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the similar to 25 degrees C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatch ling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline; but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation)(7,8) may be able to preserve the nesting population.
引用
收藏
页码:814 / 820
页数:7
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