Changes in the potential habitats of 10 dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change remains elusive in the species-rich Taiwan-Japan archipelago. We predicted potential habitats (PHs) of ten dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species by using the current and twenty potential climate change scenarios using generalised additive models. The presence/absence records of each species, extracted from vegetation database, were used as response variables. Four climatic and one spatial variables were used as explanatory variables. The results showed that the interaction terms of spatial variable, indicating historical range shifts or species interactions, restricted the distribution of all the target species as much as that by the each climatic variable. The PHs of all the target species were predicted to consistently increase, and in particular, to expand northward and upward to the cool temperate zone. However, the PHs were predicted to decrease within the range of 23.6-38.1 % in the Ryukyu Islands for Castanopsis sieboldii and Elaeocarpus japonica, respectively, and within the range of 32.4-42.3 % in Taiwan for Camellia japonica and Distylium racemosum, respectively. These findings suggest that the four species will be vulnerable at the southern range limits; however, the remaining six species will potentially increase within the PH areas in the future at all regions.