Simulating and mapping the spatial and seasonal effects of future climate and land -use changes on ecosystem services in the Yanhe watershed, China

Effective information about ecosystem services is essential to help optimize and prioritize activities that support conservation planning in the face of land use and climate changes. This study shows an approach that integrates several dissimilar models for assessing water-related ecosystem services to predict values in 2050 under three land use scenarios in the Yanhe watershed. The simulated output variables pertaining to water yield and sediment yield were used as indicators for two ecosystem-regulating services, i.e., water flow regulation and erosion regulation, which were quantified using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale, which facilitated the analysis of spatial and seasonal changes and served as the basis for the applied mapping approach. The simulated results indicate that higher water-related regulation services were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of rivers with high water yield and low sediment erosion. The highest water flow regulation services occurred in summer; nevertheless, this was when erosion regulation services were the lowest compared to other periods in 2050. A comparison of the three land use scenarios showed differences in the water-related regulation services. Scenario 1, with high forest coverage, had the highest erosion regulation services, but the water flow regulation services were the lowest. Scenario 3 showed the reverse pattern. Scenario 2 had intermediate water flow regulation and erosion regulation. Increasing vegetation cover in the watershed is conducive to controlling water and soil erosion but could lead to a decline in available water resources. Spatial mapping is a powerful tool for displaying the spatiotemporal differences in the water-related regulation services delivered by ecosystems and can help decision makers optimize land use in the future, with the goal of maximizing the benefits offered by ecological services in the Yanhe watershed.