Probabilistic seismic hazard at Mt. Etna (Italy): The contribution of local fault activity in mid-term assessment

In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the "site approach" through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (I-exp) in 50 years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5 years), values of I-exp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI <= I-0 <= VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10 years, and 30% and 10% in 5 years. Occurrence probability of major events (I-0 >= VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5 years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5 years (2013-2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.