Application of Bayesian Theory to Risk Analysis in Real Estate Investment

被引：0

作者：

Xiang Jianguo ^{[1
]}

Meng Fanli ^{[1
]}

Bu Chong ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Zhejiang Coll Construct, Dept Civil & Architectural Engn, Hangzhou 311231, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF 2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CONSTRUCTION & REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT, VOLS 1 AND 2 | 2008年

关键词：

Bayesian theory; real estate investment; uncertain factors; risk analysis;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Real estate investment is uncertain and restricted by policies, social and economic conditions. In this paper, six risk factors are determined based on the analysis of the typical example of Qiaotoubao project in Quzhou. This study indicated that the process of city development, the schedule of land remise, the level of price and the construction of Higher Education Mega Center are main factors that dominate the degree of risk. A decision model is established based on the Bayesian theory and the expectation of income are obtained. This study can provide a reference for the risk analysis in real estate investment. These practices indicate that applying Bayesian theory to risk analysis is useful and feasible.

引用

页码：969 / 971

页数：3