Robustness of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting against False Data Injection Attacks

被引:22
作者
Zhang, Yao [1 ]
Lin, Fan [1 ]
Wang, Ke [1 ]
机构
[1] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Shaanxi Key Lab Smart Grid, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
anomaly detection; cybersecurity; deterministic forecasting; false data injection attack; probabilistic forecasting; wind power forecasting; LOAD CURVE DATA; ANOMALY DETECTION; NEURAL-NETWORKS; SPEED; PREDICTION; MODELS; MACHINE; DENSITY; COPULA; FARM;
D O I
10.3390/en13153780
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
The accuracy of wind power forecasting depends a great deal on the data quality, which is so susceptible to cybersecurity attacks. In this paper, we study the cybersecurity issue of short-term wind power forecasting. We present one class of data attacks, called false data injection attacks, against wind power deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. We show that any malicious data can be injected to historical data without being discovered by one of the commonly-used anomaly detection techniques. Moreover, we testify that attackers can launch such data attacks even with limited resources. To study the impact of data attacks on the forecasting accuracy, we establish the framework of simulating false data injection attacks using the Monte Carlo method. Then, the robustness of six representative wind power forecasting models is tested. Numerical results on real-world data demonstrate that the support vector machine and k-nearest neighbors combined with kernel density estimator are the most robust deterministic and probabilistic forecasting ones among six representative models, respectively. Nevertheless, none of them can issue accurate forecasts under very strong false data attacks. This presents a serious challenge to the community of wind power forecasting. The challenge is to study robust wind power forecasting models dealing with false data attacks.
引用
收藏
页数:22
相关论文
共 60 条
[1]   Probabilistic anomaly detection in natural gas time series data [J].
Akouemo, Hermine N. ;
Povinelli, Richard J. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2016, 32 (03) :948-956
[2]   Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting [J].
Bessa, Ricardo J. ;
Miranda, V. ;
Botterud, A. ;
Zhou, Z. ;
Wang, J. .
RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2012, 40 (01) :29-39
[3]   Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error [J].
Bludszuweit, Hans ;
Antonio Dominguez-Navarro, Jose ;
Llombart, Andres .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2008, 23 (03) :983-991
[4]   Probabilistic wind power forecasts using local quantile regression [J].
Bremnes, JB .
WIND ENERGY, 2004, 7 (01) :47-54
[5]  
Brier E., 2003, CHEM COMBINATORIAL A
[6]   Intrusion Evaluation of Communication Network Architectures for Power Substations [J].
Bulbul, Rashiduzzaman ;
Sapkota, Pingal ;
Ten, Chee-Wooi ;
Wang, Lingfeng ;
Ginter, Andrew .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, 2015, 30 (03) :1372-1382
[7]   Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output [J].
Cassola, Federico ;
Burlando, Massimiliano .
APPLIED ENERGY, 2012, 99 :154-166
[8]   Automated Load Curve Data Cleansing in Power Systems [J].
Chen, Jiyi ;
Li, Wenyuan ;
Lau, Adriel ;
Cao, Jiguo ;
Wang, Ke .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, 2010, 1 (02) :213-221
[9]   Exploiting Vulnerabilities of Load Forecasting Through Adversarial Attacks [J].
Chen, Yize ;
Tan, Yushi ;
Zhang, Baosen .
E-ENERGY'19: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 10TH ACM INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS, 2019, :1-11
[10]   A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction [J].
Costa, Alexandre ;
Crespo, Antonio ;
Navarro, Jorge ;
Lizcano, Gil ;
Madsen, Henrik ;
Feitosa, Everaldo .
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2008, 12 (06) :1725-1744