Calculators and crystal balls: Predicting journal subscription prices

Subscription price projections are a helpful planning tool for libraries, which must make purchase decisions before actual prices are set. Predicting journal subscription prices requires a combination of art and science. Objective data include information on the publishing environment as well as the overall economic climate in major countries where publishing occurs. Increased manuscript submissions, subscription cancellations, paper and postage casts, and general overhead can all affect how publishers set prices. Currency exchange rates are a major, uncontrollable factor in this global market. A price projection methodology must predict how publishers will factor each of these variables, as well as their overall sense of market demand and price elasticity, into their price-setting decisions. Changes in application of the methodology must be made from time to time to reflect changes within the journal publishing market.