A Prospective Evaluation of High-Resolution CT Parameters in Predicting Extracorporeal Shockwave Lithotripsy Success for Upper Urinary Tract Calculi

Objective: To evaluate the ability of noncontrast CT parameters (stone size, stone attenuation, and skin-to-stone distance [SSD]) to predict the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) in a prospective cohort of patients with renal and upper ureteric stones. Patients and Methods: Patients with stones 5 to 20mm were prospectively enrolled from 2011 to 2014. Patients had NCCT with recording of stone size, stone mean attenuation, and SSD, as well as various stone and patient parameters. The numbers of needed sessions as well as the final outcome were determined, with SWL failure defined as residual fragments >3 mm. Predictors of SWL failure were assessed by multiple regression analysis. Results: Two hundred twenty patients (mean +/- standard deviation [SD] age 41.5 +/- 12.4 years) underwent SWL. Mean +/- SD stone size was 11.3 +/- 4.1 mm, while mean +/- SD stone attenuation was 795.1 +/- 340.4 HU. Mean +/- SD SSD was 9.4 +/- 2.1 cm. The average number of sessions was 1.64. SWL was effective in 186 (84.5%) patients (group A), while 34 (15.5%) patients had significant residual fragments (>3 mm). On univariate analysis, predictors of SWL failure included stone attenuation >1000 HU, older age, higher body mass index, higher attenuation value, larger stone size, and longer SSD. Increased SSD and higher stone attenuation retained their significance as independent predictors of SWL failure (p < 0.05) on multiple regression analysis both after first session and as final SWL outcome. A positive correlation was found between number of SWL sessions and mean stone attenuation (r = 0.6, p < 0.001) and SSD (r = 4, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Stone mean attenuation and SSD on noncontrast CT are significant independent predictors of SWL outcome in patients with renal and ureteric stones. These parameters should be included in clinical decision algorithms for patients with urolithiasis. For patients with stones having mean attenuation of >1000 HU and/or large SSDs, alternatives to SWL should be considered.