Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

被引：63

作者：

Wilson, T

Rees, P

机构：

[1] Univ Queensland, Queensland Ctr Populat Res, Sch Geog, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

[2] Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

来源：

POPULATION SPACE AND PLACE | 2005年 / 11卷 / 05期

关键词：

population projections; review; methodology; probabilistic projections; migration; scenarios;

D O I：

10.1002/psp.389

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：337 / 360

页数：24

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