Operational monitoring and forecasting for marine environmental applications in the Aegean Sea

Development of end-user products in the context of operational oceanography requires the combined use of multi-parametric real-time measurements and numerical models with forecasting capabilities. The implementation of such systems in the Aegean Sea has established a pre-operational monitoring and forecasting capacity able to support oil-drift prediction applications and ongoing developments in ecological modeling. The monitoring basis of the system is an operational network of oceanographic buoys complemented by experimental or pre-operational components such as Ferry-Box systems, multi-parametric deep sea buoys and XBT observations from a VOS program. The hydrodynamic modeling system follows a downscaling approach and is able to reproduce general circulation and mesoscale dynamics while its forecasting skill is increased at open sea sites. Coupling to global forecasting systems, assimilation of data from the extended observing system, as well as further downscaling to coastal areas are ongoing efforts to improve the overall system performance. The oil-spill forecasting model developed for the POSEIDON system is being used to demonstrate the need of reliable oceanic forecast, especially in cases of low wind conditions when the general and mesoscale circulation is the predominant forcing factor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.