Stochastic Analysis of Train Running Safety on Bridge with Earthquake-Induced Irregularity under Aftershock

As a type of urban life project in China, bridges need a certain capacity of trains running safely after an earthquake to ensure and guarantee transportation on railway lines, post-disaster reconstruction and relief work. Since aftershocks may occur after the main shock, the earthquake-induced irregularity and aftershock intensity are fully considered, based on the running safety index in the seismic design of bridges. However, there is a lack of research on the running safety of trains after an earthquake; it is mainly judged on experience, and lacks theoretical basis. In this paper, the established finite element model of a train bridge interaction system with symmetry was considered. The point estimation method (PEM) combined with moment expansion approximation (MEA) is used for random calculation of the Housner Intensity (HI). Furthermore, running safety indexes were analyzed and the running safety performance of a simply supported bridge with symmetry was assessed under a post-earthquake condition. Then the limit value, to ensure the traffic safety performance after an earthquake, is calculated based on stochastic analysis. The HI can be calculated with full consideration of the randomness of aftershock intensity and structural parameters. On this basis, a calculation method of the HI that considers the randomness of aftershock intensity is proposed. This study can be helpful for the performance-based design of symmetric railway structures under post-earthquake conditions.