Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics

被引：197
|
作者：
Baier, Scott L. [2 ,3 ]
Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. [1 ,4 ,5 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Notre Dame, Dept Finance, Mendoza Coll Business, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
[2] Clemson Univ, John E Walter Dept Econ, Clemson, SC 29634 USA
[3] Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30309 USA
[4] Univ Notre Dame, Kellogg Inst Int Studies, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
[5] CESifo, Munich, Germany
来源：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS | 2009年 / 77卷 / 01期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
International trade flows; Free trade agreements; Matching econometrics; Treatment effects; ECONOMIC-INTEGRATION; PROPENSITY SCORE; GRAVITY; GROWTH; EEC;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.09.006
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper provides the first cross-section estimates of long-run treatment effects of free trade agreements on members' bilateral international trade flows using (nonparametric) matching econometrics. Our nonparametric cross-section estimates of ex post long-run treatment effects are much more stable across years and have more economically plausible values than corresponding OLS cross-section estimates from typical gravity equations. We provide plausible estimates of the long-run effects of membership in the original European Economic Community (EEC) and the Central American Common Market (CACM) between 1960 and 2000 and the estimates confirm anecdotal reports of these agreements' effectiveness. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码：63 / 76
页数：14
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