Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

被引：40

作者：

Thomas, Jordan L. ^{[1
]}

Waugh, Darryn W. ^{[1
]}

Gnanadesikan, Anand ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2015年 / 42卷 / 13期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

global climate models; natural variability; Southern Annular Mode; SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE; ANNULAR MODE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ANTHROPOGENIC CO2; GREENHOUSE-GAS; ICE TRENDS; OCEAN; OZONE; ATMOSPHERE; INDEX;

D O I：

10.1002/2015GL064521

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

引用

页码：5508 / 5515

页数：8

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