The influence of stand and landscape characteristics on forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) defoliation dynamics: the case of the 1999-2002 outbreak in northwestern Quebec

The forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hbn.) is an eruptive forest insect common across North America and an important defoliator of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). Forest stands having suffered severe defoliations by the forest tent caterpillar over multiple years are known to incur reduced tree growth and increased tree mortality. In this study, we developed a predictive model of forest tent caterpillar defoliation dynamics using local and contextual variables expressing forest composition and structure, and their heterogeneity, at different scales. Of all scales considered (500, 1000, 1500, and 2000 m), contextual variables at 1500 m were found to have the greatest effect on defoliation dynamics. At this scale, we found that a greater proportion of preferred host trees in the landscape increased defoliation severity, but duration was modulated by compositional heterogeneity, where persistence was reduced in highly heterogeneous landscapes. Indeed, the likelihood of a single year of defoliation was much greater in highly diverse landscapes than the likelihood of multiple years of defoliation. These findings are consistent with ecological theory. Contrary to the expected result that older trees would be most susceptible, we found that "middle-aged" trees (similar to 50 years) were most likely to be defoliated.