Association of Axial Length With Risk of Uncorrectable Visual Impairment for Europeans With Myopia

IMPORTANCE Myopia (ie, nearsightedness) is becoming the most common eye disorder to cause blindness in younger persons in many parts of the world. Visual impairment due to myopia is associated with structural changes of the retina and the globe because of elongation of the eye axis. How axial length-a sum of the anterior chamber depth, lens thickness, and vitreous chamber depth-andmyopia relate to the development of visual impairment over time is unknown. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the association between axial length, spherical equivalent, and the risk of visual impairment and to make projections of visual impairment for regions with high prevalence rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study uses population-based data from the Rotterdam Study I (1990 to 1993), II (2000 to 2002), and III (2006 to 2008) and the Erasmus Rucphen Family Study (2002 to 2005) as well as case-control data from the Myopia Study (2010 to 2012) from the Netherlands. In total, 15 404 individuals with data on spherical equivalent and 9074 individuals with data on axial length were included in the study; right eyes were used for analyses. Data were analyzed from September 2014 to May 2016. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Visual impairment and blindness (defined according to the World Health Organization criteria as a visual acuity less than 0.3) and predicted rates of visual impairment specifically for persons with myopia. RESULTS Of the 15 693 individuals included in this study, the mean (SD) age was 61.3 (11.4) years, and 8961 (57.1%) were female. Axial length ranged from 15.3 to 37.8 mm; 819 individuals had an axial length of 26 mm or greater. Spherical equivalent ranged from -25 to +14 diopters; 796 persons had highmyopia (ie, a spherical equivalent of -6 diopters or less). The prevalence of visual impairment varied from 1.0% to 4.1% in the population-based studies, was 5.4% in the Myopia Study, and was 0.3% in controls. The prevalence of visual impairment rose with increasing axial length and spherical equivalent, with a cumulative incidence (SE) of visual impairment of 3.8% (1.3) for participants aged 75 years with an axial length of 24 to less than 26mm and greater than 90% (8.1) with an axial length of 30mm or greater. The cumulative risk (SE) of visual impairment was 5.7%(1.3) for participants aged 60 years and 39%(4.9) for those aged 75 years with a spherical equivalent of -6 diopters or less. Projections of these data suggest that visual impairment will increase 7- to 13-fold by 2055 in high-risk areas. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study demonstrated that visual impairment is associated with axial length and spherical equivalent and may be unavoidable at the most extreme values in this population. Developing strategies to prevent the development of myopia and its complications could help to avoid an increase of visual impairment in the working-age population.