Suicide mortality in Hungary during the COVID-19 pandemic Experiences of the first two pandemic years (2020 and 2021)

Introduction: While suicide rates did not change (or decreased) in the first pandemic year (i.e., 2020) in the majority of countries, in Hungary the number of completed suicides rose significantly. Objective: In our study, we investigated whether the unfavourable trend reversal of the Hungarian suicide rate following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic persisted in the second pandemic year. Method: We used an interrupted time-series analysis with Prais-Winsten regression, controlling for time and seasonal effects as well as autoregressive effects, to estimate the effect of the pandemic on the suicide rates of the Hungarian male, female and total populations in 2020 and 2021. Results: In the first pandemic year, we observed a significant increase in suicide rates in males and the total population. Although the case numbers for males and the total population in 2021 exceeded the case numbers of the prepandemic year, regression estimates suggest that the increase in rates did not differ significantly from the pre-pandemic years in males and it was only found to be significant at the 10% level in the total population. Discussion and conclusion: Based on the examination of data from the first two pandemic years, we may conclude that by 2021 the adverse effect of the pandemic on suicidality reduced in the total population and disappeared in males. The question remains open whether this favourable development will continue.