Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?

被引：4

作者：

Lanne, Markku ^{[1
]}

Luoto, Jani

机构：

[1] Univ Helsinki, Dept Polit & Econ Studies, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland

来源：

ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2012年 / 115卷 / 03期

基金：

芬兰科学院;

关键词：

Inflation forecast; Noncausal time series; Phillips curve;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.088

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Since the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：383 / 386

页数：4

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