Trade and conflict in multi-country models: A rejoinder

Hegre provides an interesting extension and an important amendment to my previous article. Here, I evaluate the ratio of minimum probabilities of victory given different assumptions about the nature of conflict. The analysis corroborates my previous conclusion that trade has the strongest deterrent effect if countries trade freely before conflict and are committed to not trading after conflict. In agreement with Hegre, the effect of trade increases with a larger number of countries. Finally, I demonstrate that the interpretation of ratio-indicators needs to be done with caution - just as is the case with difference-indicators.