Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

被引：20

作者：

Eilola, Kari ^{[1
]}

Rosell, Elin Almroth ^{[1
]}

Dieterich, Christian ^{[2
]}

Fransner, Filippa ^{[2
]}

Hoglund, Anders ^{[2
]}

Meier, H. E. Markus ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-42671 Vastra Frolunda, Sweden

[2] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden

来源：

AMBIO | 2012年 / 41卷 / 06期

关键词：

Modeling; Transports; Nutrients; Baltic Sea; Coastal exchange; Climate; COUPLED MODEL; FRESH-WATER; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; EUTROPHICATION; CIRCULATION; ENSEMBLE; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

引用

页码：586 / 599

页数：14

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