Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

被引:62
作者
Hunter, S. J. [1 ]
Goldobin, D. S. [2 ,3 ]
Haywood, A. M. [1 ]
Ridgwell, A. [4 ]
Rees, J. G.
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Leicester, Dept Math, Leicester LE1 7RH, Leics, England
[3] UB RAS, Inst Continuous Media Mech, Perm, Russia
[4] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England
关键词
methane hydrate; anthropogenic; climate change; GAS HYDRATE; METHANE HYDRATE; HEAT-FLOW; STABILITY; TEMPERATURE; CLATHRATE; SEDIMENTS; MODEL;
D O I
10.1016/j.epsl.2013.02.017
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr(-1)) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top similar to 100 m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath <500 m water depth. Predicted dissociation rates are particularly sensitive to the modelled vertical hydrate distribution within sediments. Under the worst case business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 ( >30-50 Tg CH4 yr(-1)), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr(-1). (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:105 / 115
页数:11
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