ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF FISCAL POLICIES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper provides a formal theoretical framework for analyzing the sustainability of fiscal policy based on the government intertemporal budget constraint, and derives conditions that determine whether a fiscal stance is sustainable in the medium and long term. In contrast to previous studies, it uses a log-linearization of the public debt identity and generalizes the results obtained in the literature by using a multivariate test. The analysis is applied to the fiscal position of the United States and the Euro Area. On the basis of infinite horizon-tests the broad conclusion is that both regions have a sustainable fiscal policy.