Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China's Broiler Market

被引:4
作者
Yi, Lan [1 ,2 ]
Tao, Jianping [1 ,2 ]
Tan, Caifeng [1 ,2 ]
Zhu, Zhongkun [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China
[2] Huazhong Agr Univ, Hubei Rural Dev Res Ctr, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
avian influenza; public opinion; price risk; spatial spillover; sustainability of global broiler market; limited attention; two-step flow of communication; infection cases; Baidu search volume; Google search volume; VERTICAL PRICE TRANSMISSION; 2-STEP FLOW; PANEL-DATA; POULTRY; ATTENTION; MODELS; IMPACT; TESTS; MEDIA; UNDERREACTION;
D O I
10.3390/su11082358
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Animal disease is a major threat to the sustainability of the global livestock market. We explore the price risk spillover of avian influenza to the broiler market, from the perspective of public opinion. Unlike in previous work, where avian influenza is measured as a whole, we decompose an avian influenza epidemic into avian influenza outbreak and public opinion, measured by infection cases and Baidu and Google search volume. Theoretically, by introducing the theory of limited attention and two-step flow of communication, we develop an analytical framework to capture the causal mechanism of avian influenza outbreak, public opinion, and broiler price risk spillover, arguing that it is actually public opinion, not avian influenza outbreak alone, that directly causes broiler price risk. Empirically, using a long panel from China spanning from November 2004-November 2017, we examine the causal mechanism and analyse the nonlinear spatial spillover of public opinion to broiler price risk. We find that: (i) neither poultry nor human infection with avian influenza outbreak has a significant spillover to broiler price; (ii) on average, public opinion has a negative spillover to broiler price; in general, spillover of public opinion to broiler price is inverse U-shaped; (iii) on average, public opinion has a negative direct effect on local broiler price and a three times larger negative spatial spillover effect on nearby broiler price; in general, direct and spatial spillover effects are inverse U-shaped. Our research highlights the importance of studying public opinion in amplifying price risk when analysing spillover of animal disease to the global livestock market.
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页数:44
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