Background The relationship between guideline adherence and outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been widely investigated considering the emergency, acute, post acute phases separately, but the effectiveness of the whole care process is not known. Aim The study aim was to evaluate the effect of the multicomponent continuum of care on 1-year survival after AMI. Methods We conducted a cohort study selecting all incident cases of AMI from health information systems during 2011-2014 in the Lazio region. Patients' clinical history was defined by retrieving previous hospitalizations and drugs prescriptions. For each subject the probability to reach the hospital and the conditional probabilities to survive to 30 days from admission and to 31-365 days post discharge were estimated through multivariate logistic models. The 1-year survival probability was calculated as the product of the three probabilities. Quality of care indicators were identified in terms of emergency timeliness (time between residence and the nearest hospital), hospital performance in treatment of acute phase (number/timeliness of PCI on STEMI) and drug therapy in post-acute phase (number of drugs among anti platelet, (beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors/ARBs, statins). The 1-year survival Probability Ratio (PR) and its Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (BCI) between who were exposed to the highest level of quality of care (timeliness<10', hospitalization in high performance hospital, complete drug therapy) and who exposed to the worst (timeliness >= 10', hospitalization in low performance hospital, suboptimal drug therapy) were calculated fora mean-severity patient and varying gender and age. PRs for patients with diabetes and COPD were also evaluated. Results We identified 38,517 incident cases of AMI. The out-of-hospital mortality was 27.6%. Among the people arrived in hospital, 42.9% had a hospitalization for STEMI with 11.1% of mortality in acute phase and 5.4% in post-acute phase. For a mean-severity patient the PR was 1.19 (BCI 1.14-1.24). The ratio did not change by gender, while it moved from 1.06 (BCI 1.05-1.08) for age<65 years to 1.62 (BCI 1.45-1.80) for age >85 years. For patients with diabetes and COPD a slight increase in PRs was also observed. Conclusions The 1-year survival probability post AMI depends strongly on the quality of the whole multi component continuum of care. Improving the performance in the different phases, taking into account the relationship among these, can lead to considerable saving of lives, in particular for the elderly and for subjects with chronic diseases.
