Estimating Causal Effects on Networked Observational Data via Representation Learning

In this paper, we study the causal effects estimation problem on networked observational data. We theoretically prove that standard graph machine learning (ML) models, e.g., graph neural networks (GNNs), fail in estimating the causal effects on networks. We show that graph ML models exhibit two distribution mismatches of their objective functions compared to causal effects estimation, leading to the failure of traditional ML models. Motivated by this, we first formulate the networked causal effects estimation as a data-driven multi-task learning problem, and then propose a novel framework NetEst to conduct causal inference in the network setting. NetEst uses GNNs to learn representations for confounders, which are from both a unit's own characteristics and the network effects. The embeddings are then used to sufficiently bridge the distribution gaps via adversarial learning and estimate the observed outcomes simultaneously. Extensive experimental studies on two real-world networks with semi-synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of NetEst. We also provide analyses on why and when NetEst works.